business/governmental clients. ValMarPro Forecasting specializes in the Lundgren method of forecasting incentives, which calculates the value marginal product (VMP) of individual...

About the VMP Method... About the VMP Method of Forecasting Incentives General Definition of VMP: The term "Value Marginal Product" (abbreviated as "VMP") refers to a concept... or incremental amount of Product which results from the use of an additional input to the production process. The term "Value Marginal Product" (VMP) refers to the monetary worth... or value of the Marginal Product which is produced. Definition of Forecaster VMP: In the context of forecasting and estimation, the Product is the information contained...

Incentives Based on Value Marginal Product: This paper describes a scheme of cost-efficient incentives for eliciting unbiased predictions from human forecasters. The method... measures a close proxy for the value marginal product (VMP) of each forecaster and pays in accordance therewith. Fore5b.pdf Peer-Group Forecasting Incentives for Unobserved Variables: A... with their value marginal product (VMP) can be used to elicit unbiased forecasts or estimates of unobserved variables from individual forecasters. Peer2a.pdf Forecasting Incentives...

in accordance with the Value Marginal Product (VMP) of the forecasts which they produce. The incentive method has several desirable features, including unbiased forecasts, efficient... aggregation of information, and appropriate elicitation of effort levels. The method may be used to solicit forecasts or estimates for any observable or unobservable variable value..., including subjective values and probability estimates. Examples: Possible applications of the Lundgren forecasting incentives method include prediction of future prices, quantities...